doctoral candidate from 01.01.1971 to 01.01.2025
Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Kamchatka, Russian Federation
Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University
Russian Federation
Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University
Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University
UDC 55
UDC 550.34
UDC 550.383
CSCSTI 37.01
CSCSTI 37.15
CSCSTI 37.25
CSCSTI 37.31
CSCSTI 38.01
CSCSTI 36.00
CSCSTI 37.00
CSCSTI 38.00
CSCSTI 39.00
CSCSTI 52.00
Russian Classification of Professions by Education 05.00.00
Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 26
Russian Trade and Bibliographic Classification 63
BISAC SCI SCIENCE
This article discusses the results of long-term multi-instrumental geophysical measurements in the Avacha Bay area (the eastern coast of Kamchatka), conducted for the purpose of medium- and short-term seismic hazard prediction for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky region. The most important results, reflecting the starting process of the Kamchatka megaearthquake (July 29, 2025, MW = 8.8), were obtained using data from the Multi-Instrumental Borehole Measurement Network, as well as data from monitoring changes in the total electron content of the ionosphere. Data obtained from six types of borehole measurements are used to monitor the initial processes of large earthquakes in the Avacha Bay area. The basic types of monitoring are two original methods developed by the authors: a method for monitoring changes in the specific electrical resistance (SER) of the geoenvironment using underground electrical antennas, and a method for monitoring changes in the geoenvironment moisture based on borehole geoacoustic measurement data. It is shown that a record-breaking SER anomaly (amplitude, duration) formed in the Avacha Bay area on the eve of the Kamchatka megaearthquake. This anomaly was reflected in SER monitoring data for a monitoring depth of 2200 m beginning in mid-2018, and in data for a depth of 950 m in early 2021. Since January 2014, the Laboratory for Multi-Instrumental Monitoring of Seismically Active Environments at the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IVS FEB RAS) has been regularly (usually every two weeks) preparing conclusions with seismic hazard assessments for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky agglomeration area based on the current results of geophysical measurements in the Avacha Bay area. The research focused not on accurately predicting the timing and parameters of a strong earthquake (which is inherently impossible) but on probabilistically assessing the current seismic hazard for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky agglomeration. This approach enabled the authors to successfully predict two strong foreshocks of the Kamchatka megaearthquake – the Shipunskoye-1 earthquake (August 17, 2024; MW = 7.0) and the Shipunskoye-2 earthquake (July 20, 2025, MW = 7.4), which caused tremors of up to points 6.0 in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
Seismic hazard prediction, active earthquake preparation phase, consolidation model, borehole measurements, underground electric antenna, Kamchatka megaearthquake
1. Belyakov A. S. Construction of magneto-elastic geophones // Seismicheskie Pribory. — 2004. — Vol. 40. — P. 28–35. — (In Russian).
2. Bykov V. G. Strain waves in the Earth: Theory, field data, and models // Geology and Geophysics. — 2005. — Vol. 46, no. 11. — P. 1176–1190. — (In Russian).
3. Bykov V. G. Slow Strain Waves: Models and Observations, a Review // International Journal of Geosciences. — 2023. — Vol. 14, no. 01. — P. 108–149. — https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2023.141007
4. Dobrovolsky I. P. Mathematical theory of preparation and forecast of tectonic earthquake. — Moscow : Fizmatlit, 2009. — 240 p. — (In Russian).
5. Fedotov S. A. and Chernyshev S. D. Long-term Earthquake Prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc: Reliability in 1986-2000, the Development of the Method, and the Forecast for 2001-2005 // Volcanology & Seismology. — 2002. — No. 6. — P. 3–24.
6. Fedotov S. A. and Solomatin A. V. The long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc for the April 2016 through March 2021 period, its modification and application; the Kuril-Kamchatka seismicity before and after the May 24, 2013, M 8.3 deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk // Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. — 2017. — Vol. 11, no. 3. — P. 173–186. — https://doi.org/10.1134/s0742046317030022
7. Fedotov S. A. and Solomatin A. V. Long-Term Earthquake Prediction (LTEP) for the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc, June 2019 to May 2024; Properties of Preceding Seismicity from January 2017 to May 2019. The Development and Practical Application of the LTEP Method // Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. — 2019. — Vol. 13, no. 6. — P. 349–362. — https://doi.org/10.1134/s0742046319060022
8. Fujinawa Y., Kumagai T. and Takahashi K. A study of anomalous underground electric field variations associated with a volcanic eruption // Geophysical Research Letters. — 1992. — Vol. 19, no. 1. — P. 9–12. — https://doi.org/10.1029/91gl02822
9. Gavrilov V. A. Method for continuous monitoring of electrical rock resistivity // Seismicheskie Pribory. — 2013. — Vol. 49, no. 3. — P. 25–38. — (In Russian).
10. Gavrilov V. A. Influence of alternating electromagnetic fields on geoacoustic processes: empirical regularities and physical mechanisms : PhD thesis / Gavrilov V. A. — Moscow, 2017. — (In Russian).
11. Gavrilov V. A., Bogomolov L. M., Morozova Yu. V., et al. Variations in geoacoustic emissions in a deep borehole and its correlation with seismicity // Annals of Geophysics. — 2008. — Vol. 51, no. 5/6. — P. 737–753. — https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3013
12. Gavrilov V. A., Buss Yu. Yu., Deshcherevskii A. V., et al. From monitoring of preparation processes to short-term forecast of strong Kamchatka earthquakes // Problems of complex geophysical monitoring of seismically active regions. Proceedings of the Ninth All-Russian Scientific and Technical Conference with international participation, September 24-30, 2023. — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 2023a. — P. 216–221. — (In Russian).
13. Gavrilov V. A., Buss Yu. Yu., Poltavtseva E. V., et al. Approaches to Short-Term Prediction of Seismic Hazard for the Area of Avacha Bay (Kamchatka) // Russian Journal of Earth Sciences. — 2025a. — Vol. 25. — ES5008. — https://doi.org/10.2205/2025es001054 — (In Russian).
14. Gavrilov V. A., Deshcherevskii A. V., Vlasov Yu. A., et al. Network of Multidisciplinary Borehole Measurements at the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky Geodynamic Testing Area // Seismic Instruments. — 2022. — Vol. 58, no. 2. — P. 121–138. — https://doi.org/10.3103/s0747923922020050
15. Gavrilov V. A., Morozova Yu. V. and Storcheus A. V. Variations in the level of geoacoustic emission in deep well G-L, Kamchatka and their relation to seismicity // Vulkanologiya i Sejsmologiya. — 2006. — No. 1. — P. 52–67. — (In Russian).
16. Gavrilov V. A. and Naumov A. V. Modulation of geoacoustic emission intensity by time-varying electric field // Russian Journal of Earth Sciences. — 2017. — Vol. 17, no. 1. — ES1003. — https://doi.org/10.2205/2017es000591
17. Gavrilov V. A., Panteleev I. A., Deshcherevskii A. V., et al. Stress-Strain State Monitoring of the Geological Medium Based on The Multi-instrumental Measurements in Boreholes: Experience of Research at the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii Geodynamic Testing Site (Kamchatka, Russia) // Pure and Applied Geophysics. — 2020. — Vol. 177, no. 1. — P. 397–419. — https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02311-3
18. Gavrilov V. A., Poltavtseva E. V., Sagaryarov I. A., et al. On the relationship between the changes in the total electron content of the ionosphere before strong Kamchatka earthquakes and those in the specific electrical resistivity of the geomedium // Geodynamics & Tectonophysics. — 2025b. — Vol. 16, no. 4. — https://doi.org/10.5800/gt-2025-16-4-0837 — (In Russian).
19. Gavrilov V. A., Poltavtseva E. V., Titkov N. N., et al. Monitoring of changes in the stress-strain state of geoenvironment at the Petropavlovsk geodynamic testing site based on the multi-instrumental borehole and GPS data during the active phase of preparing the Zhupanovsky earthquake (January 30, 2016, Mw 7.2) // Geodynamics & Tectonophysics. — 2023b. — Vol. 14, no. 6. — https://doi.org/10.5800/gt-2023-14-6-0732 — (In Russian).
20. Godzikovskaya A. A. Summary of macroseismic data on Kamchatka earthquakes (pre-instrumental and early instrumental period of observations). — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky : GS RAS, 2010. — (In Russian).
21. King R. W. P. and Smith G. S. Antennas in matters: fundamentals, theory and applications. — Cambridge, MA : The MIT Press, 1981. — 875 p.
22. Kissin I. G. Fluids in the Earth’s crust: geophysical and tectonic aspects. — Moscow : Nauka, 2009. — 328 p. — (In Russian).
23. Kissin I. G. Strain sensitivity in fluid-saturated media // Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. — 2011. — Vol. 5, no. 3. — P. 179–189. — https://doi.org/10.1134/s0742046311030055
24. Koronovskii N. V., Zakharov V. S. and Naimark A. A. The Unpredictability of Strong Earthquakes: New Understanding and Solution of the Problem // Moscow University Geology Bulletin. — 2021. — Vol. 76, no. 4. — P. 366–373. — https://doi.org/10.3103/s0145875221040074
25. Nur A. Dilatancy, pore fluids, and premonitory variations of ts/tp travel times // Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. — 1972. — Vol. 62, no. 5. — P. 1217–1222. — https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0620051217
26. Parkhomenko E. I. Electrical properties of rocks. — Moscow : Nauka, 1965. — 164 p. — (In Russian).
27. Pulinets S. and Davidenko D. Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes and Global Electric Circuit // Advances in Space Research. — 2014. — Vol. 53, no. 5. — P. 709–723. — https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2013.12.035
28. Riznichenko Yu. V. Source dimensions of a crustal earthquake and seismic moment // Studies on earthquake physics. — Moscow : Nauka, 1976. — P. 9–26. — (In Russian).
29. Sholz C. H., Sykes L. R. and Aggarwal Y. P. Earthquake Prediction: A Physical Basis // Science. — 1973. — Vol. 181, no. 4102. — P. 803–810. — https://doi.org/10.1126/science.181.4102.803
30. Sidorin A. Ya. Earthquake precursors. — Moscow : Nauka, 1992. — 192 p. — (In Russian).
31. Sobolev G. A. and Ponomarev A. V. Physics of earthquakes and precursors. — Moscow : Nauka, 2003. — 269 p. — (In Russian).
32. Strong Kamchatka earthquakes of 2013 / ed. by V. N. Chebrov. — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky : "Novaya Kniga" Holding Company, 2014. — 252 p. — (In Russian).
